Saturday, October 24, 2009

Notes on Nobelity

by James M. Buchanan*
1986 Laureate in Economics
17 December 2001

October-December 1986

I am an early riser, and I had finished my breakfast, brushed my teeth, and was on the way out the door of my Fairfax townhouse, when the telephone call from Stockholm came at 6:32 a.m. on 16 October 1986. My schedule called for a half-day's work at George Mason University before driving down the Shenandoah Valley in October's colorful splendor to my country place, tucked deep in Virginia's Applachians. My wife, Ann, had been at the country place all summer; we had not yet made the semi-annual, quasi-move from the country place to Washington's suburbia, a move that we delay each year as long as possible.

The telephone call changed all such plans. I called Ann, then Betty Tillman, my long time girl Friday, and escaped from the townhouse after only one other call, from CBS morning news. On arrival at the office, shortly before 7 a.m., it was already abundantly clear that 16 October would not be an ordinary day. Representatives from the print, sight, and sound media had commenced to arrive, and the parking lot was soon filled with sending towers and dishes. The phones went wild, and Betty rounded up all of the building's clerical staff, plus graduate students as they arrived, for assistance. Helen Ackerman, the university's public relations director, arrived to help with press contacts. We hastily organized a news conference for 11 a.m., which went on for an hour with perhaps one hundred in attendance.



After the Prize Award Ceremony, Professor James McGill Buchanan poses with his wife Mrs. Ann Backe Buchanan and his administrative assistant Mrs. Betty Tillman (right in photo).
Copyright © Pressens Bild AB
Photo: Lasse Hedberg

In part this unexpected concentration of attention on my selection for the Nobel award was temporal and locational. Congress was not in session, and the Iran-Contra scandal was bubbling just beneath the surface of exposure. The Washington suburb, Fairfax City, is only a half-hour from the district. I was "the news" of the day, and quite in contrast with Robert Solow, who, a year later, was named as the 1987 Nobel Memorial Prize recipient on the day after Black Monday.

Basically, the early releases were informationally accurate and largely biographical. Who is James Buchanan? Where and what is George Mason University? What is public choice? Perhaps I responded too quickly to the last of these questions, and perhaps in my eagerness to be understood I jumped too readily into the application of public choice analysis to the budget deficit. As a result, all sophistication in evaluation was lost, and the secondary journalistic accounts that appeared in the days immediately after 16 October were simplistic, grossly misleading, and could have been taken to be insulting to me, personally. Alone with most of the other Nobel laureates in economics, my selection was ridiculed by the media ignoramuses, in my case on the grounds that any fool knows that public choosers seek to promote their own interests. This type of criticism, stemming from uninformed journalistic arrogance, is unique to economics, and it is a cross that we bear in a science that has never isolated itself sufficiently from the public discourse. Every man his own economist - this has proved to be the scourge of rational public discourse for the lifetime of political economy.

Tertiary accounts, both positive and negative, that appeared in the weeklies and monthlies were more thoughtful, since these accounts were written by journalists who made at least some effort to understand the award by reading my books rather than the reports of other journalists.

It was apparent, very soon after 16 October, that, had I chosen to do so, I could have "enjoyed" widespread media exposure on the Washington-based talk shows that are centered on economic and political events. My very early reactions were surely the correct ones. Aside from a first-day appearance on the McNeil-Lehrer PBS news hour, I turned down all invitations for television, radio and guest column slots. I am not a policy analyst, and my views on current issues should carry little more weight than those of anyone else. I was determined not to become an "instant expert" on everything merely because I had achieved the notoriety of the Nobel Memorial Prize.

A full day did not pass before I came to realize that my selection was special in its own way, and unrelated to me in a directly personal sense. As I suggested earlier, I had never entertained a prospect of Nobel Prize status, despite considerable academic acclaim, because I held myself, my work, and my affiliation, to be too far outside the mainstream both of my own discipline and the American academia. (And I know that I should have never been selected for such an award had the selection committee been drawn senior American economists!) But this very distance from the central thrusts in subject matter, research method, ideology, institutional affiliation, regional location, and personal history also insured that, once the distinguished Swedish committee chose me for the Nobel award, I would become, in a real sense, "representative" for all members of the several intersecting sets of scholars and students. As I stated in my return to a celebration in my honor in Tennessee in early 1988, "if Jim Buchanan can be selected for a Nobel Prize, anyone can." And I felt that this sentiment was indirectly expressed in the hundreds of calls, telegrams, and letters of congratulations that poured into Fairfax from all corners of the globe during those weeks in late 1986.

In a sense, I do embody something of the American myth of social mobility. For how many farm boys from Middle Tennessee, educated in tiny, poor, and rural public schools, and at a struggling state-financed teachers college, have received Nobel prizes? How many scholars who have worked almost exclusively at southern universities have done so, in any scientific discipline? How many of my economist peers who are laureates have eschewed the use of both formal mathematical techniques and the extended resort to empirical testing?

When the singularity of my position along these and several other dimensions is recognized, it is perhaps not surprising that so many seemed to sense that my selection was, indeed, a vindication of the outsider. And the simple fact that my selection offered hope and encouragement to so many among the "great unwashed" scattered throughout the academic boondocks has been, when all is said and done, the most gratifying aspect of the whole experience of "Nobelity."

I was not, of course, surprised at all by the outpouring of congratulations from my research peers in public choice, with whom I had worked variously for decades. As I emphasized at the first day's press conference, I recognized that I did represent this whole group. There was no single or unique contribution attributable to me, alone, that provided the basis for the committee's action. The award was, I think correctly, bestowed in recognition of an important research program in political economy, a program that involved many participants, including many colleagues, students, and coauthors. I was presumably signaled out as representative because of the extended period of my research concentration, the leadership role that I had assumed, and the increasing emphasis on the constitutional implications of the program, implications that I have always particularly stressed.

The good wishes of so many warmed my heart, but these messages were accompanied by a surprisingly large number of calls, telegrams, and letters from the world's self-proclaimed saviors. I had encountered the occasional kook previously, but the Nobel Prize announcement offered a focus upon which many more could direct their efforts at persuasion. Boxes piled high with pleas; if I would only endorse this or that scheme (economic, military, moral, philosophical, political, or religious) the world would surely come right. And these pleas covered the whole spectrum of rationality, ranging from the ravings of the near-insane to the entirely plausible petitions of sincerely devoted rational-if-romantic reformers.

Once again, and early, I imposed an internal rule for my own behavioral responses. The notoriety of "Nobelity" did not elevate me to the peaks of wisdom, and a pronouncement by me or any other laureate, or any collection of laureates, should command no more respect than pronouncements by anyone else. I resolved to abjure all invitations, whether for signatures of support, or for participation in congresses, conferences, or meetings that carried the aura of Nobel-identified intellectual-scientific elitism. This resolution was surely inspired, in part, by my observations of the common folly of scholars and scientists who pretend to be wise beyond their own borders.


Two Years of High Demand: 1987, 1988

George Stigler, the Nobel Laureate in Economics Sciences in 1982, told me shortly after my own award was announced that the event would disrupt my life for six months, but, after such an interim, things would return more or less to normalcy. With me, the period was two years, rather than six months. The years 1987 and 1988 were the "busiest" of my life, if "busyness" is measured by external lectures, talks, seminars, conferences, and miles traveled. And the opportunity costs were measured in the papers and chapters in books that did not get written, and more seriously, the ideas that may have emerged but which now may never reach my consciousness.

The economist in me recognized that the post-Nobel increase in demand for my services need not have increased my amount supplied, and that fully rational choice behavior on my part should have enabled me to control my own schedule more adequately than I did. But why does an individual’s supply schedule slope upward? Why did I accept more lecture commitments as the honoraria and fees moved substantially upward after the Nobel notoriety? Surely, I did not "need" the added income. I have no children to ruin by passing on a larger personal fortune; I do not get my kicks from larger personal payments to the Internal Revenue Service.

Did I, subconsciously, recognize that my normative message had become, due to the Nobel-induced attention, more respectable, and hence, that I could, at least indirectly, now exert more ultimate influence on public opinion? In this case, the higher fees would have been non-causal in my behavior. But I have long classified myself as lacking, the didactic urge. I have, with reasonable consistency, eschewed the role of either preacher or prophet. Was I deceiving myself? Did I really seek to save the world after all?

I do not think I have been trapped in such self-deception. I think, instead, that my personal supply schedule slopes upward for the standard pecuniary reasons. As Lord Bauer suggested to me when we talked about this point in late 1988, "one can never escape from one's own shadow." Past experience describes who I am, and through almost all of my experience income, as such, did matter. And an ingrained pattern of supply response did not suddenly vanish due to modified pecuniary circumstances that the Nobel Prize award insured. In a very real sense, the two years measure the time it took for me to begin to respond rationally to demands in my modified environmental setting. Perhaps George Stigler was simply a more rapid learner, or, perhaps, he was burdened less by an impecunious past.

But let me be honest with myself. There is another aspect of my behavior on the lecture circuit that does carry positive value in my preference function, over and beyond either pecuniary emolument or ultimate ideological purpose. I enjoy the "performance itself, within limits, and given the appropriate setting. I enjoy the sense of command over and upon the attention of others; the actor that is deep inside all professors-teachers emerges to make me "feel good," to charge me up. And, so far as I can sense it, this positive feedback is largely unconnected with the subject matter of the argument and with the fee that I am being paid. And it is this utility value that, at least in some part, determines the direction of my response to varying forms of invitation. I know the type of audience that works best for me, and I tend to be more receptive to the predicted audience and to the environmental setting for presentation than I am to the fee or to any anticipated ultimate influence on opinion.


Professor James Buchanan receives his award from the hands of His Majesty King Carl Gustaf of Sweden at the Stockholm Concert Hall.
Copyright © Pressens Bild AB
Photo: Börje Thuresson

The direction of response here is related to the "social distance" aspect of my Nobel award. I am perceived, and widely so, as the only Nobel prize representative of the "great unwashed" in American academia, those thousands of faculty members and students who spend their lives in the public and private colleges and universities of our land without the prestige value of intellectual-scientific, and social, ranking. I am of the non-elite, from which it follows, more or less as a matter of course, that I get my warmest and surely my most wholesome reception during those visits to the academical villages, south, north, east, or west, that rarely see a Nobel prize winner, and whose members hold potential "Nobelity" to be beyond their aspiration levels.

In these settings, what I actually say in my lectures, seminars, postmeal talks, and informal discussions is much less important than the fact that I am there as a Nobel prize winner. But, as noted, to these particular audiences, I am a larger-than-life Nobel laureate, because I have emerged successfully from an academic background and environment that members recognize to be analogous to their own. The very deep populist elements in my psyche are stirred by the direct feedbacks of my appearances in these settings. So, when I do a summary reckoning, perhaps the utility accounts are not so askew as they may seem when first examined. But two years was, for me, a time sufficient to enjoy the one-time plaudits of my genuine "fans." This part of "my show" surely ended with 1988.


Aftermath

I have never been tempted to make pronouncements on this or that policy issue. Hence, the fact that any statements on my part will, post-Nobel, necessarily, be more worthy of public notice need exert no feedback influence on my behavior. The "responsibility of Nobelity" in any direct sense of the term is surely among the least of my concerns. But there is an aspect such responsibility does raise issues of personal morality. I suggested that I have never felt an urge to save the world or, indeed, to treat myself to be more responsible in a civic sense than any other person. On the other hand, I also recognize that unless someone, somewhere, takes the lead in promulgating constitutionalist ideas that are inherently "public," then we could scarcely expect such ideas to enter into public consciousness. We shall not secure the social order that is within the realm of the possible if each of us sits by and waits for the process of social evolution to work its will. There is, for me, a categorical distinction to be made between the presumptive arrogance of anyone, Nobel laureate or anyone else, who takes it on himself to tell others what they should do, and the attitude of someone who actively enters as a participant in a discussion of social change with all persons treated as reciprocating contributors.

The second of these roles does not, and cannot, be motivated directly by simple self-interest. There is little or no personally identifiable interest to be furthered in attempts to persuade other persons to agree to multi-person political "trades" that involve changing, the rules by which we live together in a polity. Some ethic of constitutional responsibility is required here, some interest that extends beyond that which is of measured utility value directly to me, and which is, at the same time, something other than the single-minded pursuit of "truth" which describes the idealized ethical norm for the natural scientist. At least some of the players in the inclusive social game must attend to the rules that define the game, the constitution of order, and such attention does not emerge from private self-interest, at least directly, or from "scientific discovery," as such. Within limits, we make our own rules for living together. And this central presupposition of the constitutionalist carries with it the implied ethical principle that dictate attention to the workings of the social order.

How does acceptance of this presupposition and this principle affect my own behavior in the aftermath of short-term "Nobelity?" Precisely because I am the only constitutional political economist that has achieved or seems likely to achieve Nobel Prize status, do I not carry on my shoulders the particular "burden" for all would-be constitutionalists? In a sense, I surely must do so. And the acknowledgement of this fact alone offers me the incentive to put off the obscenity of retirement as long as proves to be physically possible. Recognition of my uniqueness along this constitutionalist dimension of interest shapes the direction and content of my projected efforts in the 1990s.

My aims are limited. My tools are words that enter arguments presented in books, essays, and lectures-arguments that develop quasi-abstract ideas which challenge the minds of
those who are members of the academies. My own experience, both pre- and post-Nobel, tells me that ideas do have consequences. But far too many of my peers in the social sciences and philosophy concern themselves too much with normatively defined consequences while neglecting the task of reinforcing, maintaining, and sometimes originating, the ideas without which consequences lose all moorings.


Postscript, 1999

A decade has gone by since the preceding sections of this essay were written, and the dated sense of the material comes through in several places. There is, however, relatively little that should change if given an opportunity for a thorough re-writing.

The world has, of course, dramatically changed over the decade. The essay was written before the full impact of the revolutionary events in central and eastern Europe was recognized or predicted. The 1990s are years of post-Cold War, with implications that are not yet fully understood.


The bust of Alfred Nobel is seen in the background as Professor Buchanan receives his diploma and medal from His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden.
Copyright© Pressens Bild AB
Photo: Lasse Hedberg

The arguments developed in the immediately preceding section now seem more important than they did a decade earlier. I am deeply concerned about the apparent apathy of citizens everywhere, about the absence of outrage at the sometimes petty intrusions of governments into our lives, about the failure to appreciate developing crises in welfare democracies. Most fundamentally, I am disturbed by an apparent public failure to appreciate and to understand the relationships between the constitutional structure that defines the parameters of social-economic-political life and the patterns of outcomes that we observe. In the new century, more than ever, we must attend to the rules of the game.

The Tinbergen Brothers by Auke R. Leen

In 1969, Jan Tinbergen, aged 66, received the first Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, often mistakenly referred to as the "Nobel prize in economics." Jan shared the prize with Ragnar Frisch. Four years later, Jan's younger brother, Nikolaas (Nico), too, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. Nico was 66 years old. He shared the prize with Karl von Frisch and Konrad Lorenz. What lucky coincidence! Or was it? What made it possible for these two siblings to win the prestigious prizes? Was it their genes or their educational and social upbringing? Which brings us to the classic tug-of-war between nature and nurture. Which has the strongest influence on a person's life, nature or nurture? A look at the brothers' family background as well as the educational and social environments in which they grew up, might throw light on these questions. We shall also take a look at their work, their groundbreaking ideas and the opposition to these ideas, and the uncanny way in which their lives seemed to duplicate each other.


Jan: Quiet Mathematician

Jan was born in April 12, 1903, the eldest of five children: four boys and a girl. Nico, the third child in the family, was born in April 15, 1907. The Tinbergen children grew up in a warm, open and intellectual atmosphere. Before her marriage, their mother, a spontaneous person, worked as a primary teacher. Their father, a real pater familias, always stressing the harmony of family life, studied medieval languages at Leiden University. Next to his occupation as high-school teacher, he also became an expert on medieval Dutch literature. The Tinbergen family lived in a house in The Hague, a town near the Dutch coast, where the parents often organized discussions with the children's teachers and classmates. The family regularly had outdoor drawing lessons together, went on bike rides or took long walks.

Jan was a quiet child with a strong interest in mathematics and the natural sciences. During high school, he joined a group of students who would meet after school to do experiments in a physics lab. He faithfully attended the weekly lectures, especially those on physics, organized by a learned society. Jan did not only develop in a purely intellectual way. World War I was brought closer to home when his mother gave assistance to war casualties. Children from war-torn Belgium received shelter in the Tinbergen home. The war had a great influence on Jan's negative attitude towards militarism. He would later refuse to join the compulsory Dutch military service.

In 1921, Jan graduated from high school with the highest honors. Right after graduation, he started his studies in mathematics and the natural sciences at the University of Leiden. To save on boarding expenses, he commuted by train during his first year. To spare his parents even more, he accelerated his studies by attending second year classes in advance. During his spare time, he gave math lessons to high school students. He donated the money he earned to the Dutch Red Cross to help in their relief efforts for the children of Russia, who were suffering from food shortage.

Soon after, Jan became the assistant of Paul Ehrenfest, professor in Theoretical Physics at the university. Later, Jan became a frequent visitor to the Ehrenfest home when he became the private tutor of Ehrenfest's son. He also took part in the discussions when Ehrenfest was visited by Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg and Pauli. Notwithstanding what must have been such impressive visits with these famous physicists, Jan shifted his interest to economics on his second year. He explained his move by saying that he realized that self-interest was a major factor that steered his interest towards physics, instead of a genuine concern about his own usefulness in society. At the time, Jan and his future wife whom he met in high school, had decided to dedicate their lives to the goals of the Social Democratic Labor Party. Ehrenfest made a last ditch effort to bring Jan back to the field of physics by advising him to spend the summer of 1923 studying physics at Goettingen in Germany. To no avail. After a fruitless attempt to contact the local Socialist-Communist Student Club, Jan left within a few weeks of staying in Goettingen, overcome by homesickness. Ehrenfest was not totally averse to Jan's interest in economics. In fact, he was interested in the analogies that could be used in the study of both these fields. Jan's thesis entitled "Minimum Problems in Physics and Economics" was certainly parallel to this line of thinking. But in the end, Jan's concern for the causes of poverty made him switch from physics to economics.

physicists at Leiden
Physicists at Leiden, 1924. From left to right: Dieke, Goudsmit, Tinbergen, Ehrenfest, Fermi, Kronig. Jan Tinbergen would later shift his interest to economics.
Copyright © Chicago University Press


Nico: Outgoing Adventurer

Nico was the adventurer in the family. He liked sports such as running and playing hockey. Outdoor activities like camping appealed to him. He loved taking pictures of nature. He hated institutionalized activities such as going to school and taking piano lessons. He often missed his classes. Instead, he would wander to the nearby dunes. Except for gymnastics and drawing, in which he excelled, he had poor marks in all other subjects. His parents, however, were not too hard on him. When his report card showed poor marks, his father would eventually ask him if the poor grades were really necessary. And Nico knew what to do. Though it did gnaw on him that he just did what he liked most. In his later studies, he felt compelled to say that he was not merely indulging in his hobbies. With his overriding love for nature (save his youngest brother), Nico was aware that he was an exception to the family nature (norm) of serious study combined with left-liberal thinking. Just for the aesthetic pleasure of it, he could watch the activities of sticklebacks for hours on end. During his high school years, he joined a club that studied wildlife in its natural surroundings. Given his dislike for any formal education, he was still undecided what to do when he finished high school. Only later on in life did he follow his brother Jan's example by applying his research to social problems.

On the advice of Professor Ehrenfest, Jan's mentor and family friend of the Tinbergens, Nico went to the German coast of Königsberg in the company of the famous experimental biologist Thienmann, to watch the autumn migration of the wild moose. Back home, he decided to study biology at Leiden University. His studies, however, did not have much influence on his biological fieldwork. Still, he was primarily interested in watching and photographing the behavior of wildlife, for example, herring gulls. He saw all of this, more or less, as a sport. Only gradually did he develop a more scientific attitude towards bird watching. Which meant a painstakingly continuous observation of animals and an ingenious experimentation to check scientific hunches. This would become Nico's trademark. This was, however, not sufficient. The thesis he wrote, though an uncommon subject at that time, was only accepted after grave doubts. (Maybe because it was less than 30 pages long!) His thesis about the orientation of the digger wasp was more or less the result of a summer family holiday, during which he made the chance discovery of a nearby colony of digger wasps. The day after receiving his doctor's degree at the age of 25 (the same age that his brother got his doctor's degree a few years earlier), he married his high-school girl friend and fellow member of the youth nature club. Jan himself, got married years earlier to his high school sweetheart and fellow member of the socialist youth organization.


Introducing Econometrics

In the 1930s, Jan devised the first macro-economic model ever. In this model, the focus of economic analysis was no longer on the abstract relation between individual goods and prices. Instead, it was shifted to the concrete relationships between economic aggregates like total income, consumption and investment. His work involved the statistical observation of theoretically founded concepts, namely mathematical economics working with concrete numbers. He was later invited by the League of Nations to analyze the American economy in much the same way that he studied the Dutch economy. This resulted in his time-honored study of 1936, in which he introduced mathematics and statistics to test the different existing trade-cycle theories to the rest of the world. The study, among others, posed the question: is it overinvestment or underconsumption that causes depression? Or is it something else? A confrontation with the facts was necessary to find the answer. This was, however, not a common method in those days - empty theoretical boxes and measurements without theoretical basis characterized economic analysis then. Jan's model introduced econometrics, a synthesis between mathematics, economic theory and statistics. In this model, it is the task of economic theory to formulate hypotheses, which are in turn formed into mathematical relations that are subsequently tested by the use of statistical data.

For Jan, econometrics is essential in economic research, a vision that was, and still is, being contested. An analogy would best describe the issue. It is an acceptable truth that a city that can be reached by train can also be reached by foot. Applied to the study of economics, one will get the same results, whether using mathematics or plain language, but using the former is more efficient. The argument against Jan's model runs like this: suppose that using mathematics is the same as taking the night train. The train runs through territory that you cannot see in the dark and thus, you could end up in the wrong station. Translated into economics it means: You may not have looked at the real empirical meaning of each equation and would therefore arrive at the wrong conclusion. But then, counters Jan, suppose there is no day train?

In a Dutch paper in 1950, Jan posed the question: "Can economic theorems be proven without the use of mathematics?" Unlike in physics, economic causes cannot be separated and analyzed in real world experiments. Wages determine prices, prices determine quantities sold, quantities sold determine employment and employment determines wages. It is a shortcoming of our natural languages that these interdependencies cannot be discussed without the use of mathematics. At the end of the same paper he cited an examination in which students were made to solve mathematical problems by verbal logic, something that could have been easily done by using simple mathematics. For Jan a ridiculous situation, indeed, although it can be appreciated as a form of puzzle sport. He compared this situation to that in the world of business and politics and hoped that in the future there would be no need to solve economic problems in the style of the puzzle sport. One day, there would be enough trained econometricians in business and politics who would understand and appreciate its importance in economic analysis.

Jan Tinbergen
Jan Tinbergen
Copyright © Jan Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam


Criticism from John Maynard Keynes

Jan met the hardest criticism from the man who started the macroeconomic revolution in economics - John Maynard Keynes. Keynes was opposed to the method of multiple correlation which Jan used in trying to quantify the relative importance of the different elements that caused a business cycle. He thought that the method was merely "hocus pocus" since it did not contain all the variables, especially those that cannot be measured, for instance social, psychological, and political factors. And how about expectations and the role they play in making investments? Tinbergen maintained that a residual variable that would touch on the other influences would address this question, and expectations can always be based on the past and thus be extrapolated. Wittily, Keynes asked for an experiment. He remembered that the seventy translators of the Septuagint were shut up in separate rooms with the same Hebrew text and came out with seventy identical translations. What is the chance, he asked, that the same miracle would be vouchsafed when seventy multiple correlators are similarly shut up with the same statistical material? Keynes considered Jan's method as weak since the materials and relations described in the model were non-quantifiable, variable and non-homogenous. It was a model of thinking that lost is use as soon as one tried to give it an empirical content. A critique echoed in those days by the so-called modern Austrians, of whom Tinbergen's contemporary Hayek, was an early exponent. Notwithstanding, Tinbergen held Hayek, who was director of the Austrian Business Cycle Institute, in high esteem.

In his Prize Lecture, Jan Tinbergen admitted as much that Keynes may have been right in that he never succeeded in predicting the fluctuations in business investments. After the war, Jan's interest changed to developmental economics. He became more interested in the structure of the world economy itself and not in its fluctuations.

Keynes' last comment on Jan's method, just before World War II, brooked no further discussion. He said that notwithstanding the high opinion he had of Jan as a person, he was still not persuaded that his "statistical alchemy" was ripe enough to become a branch of science. "But," he continued, "Newton, Boyle and Locke all played with alchemy. So let him continue."

To get an idea of the awarded work of Jan Tinbergen, the lively correspondence between Keynes and Tinbergen is a stimulating way to start. See Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. Volume XIV. Macmillan, Cambridge, 1973. For a recent book of this most important period in economics see Albert Jolink, Jan Tinbergen: The Statistical Turn in Economics: 1903-1955, Chimes, Rotterdam, 2003.


Nikolaas Tinbergen vs Colleagues in the Medical Profession

Criticism to Jan's work happened at an early stage of his career. The opposite happened to Nico - the work that got him the Nobel Prize went uncontested; the clash with his colleagues came later. By the time Jan held his Prize Lecture, econometrics was firmly accepted in mainstream economics and today, it is still accepted all over the world as a universal benchmark to check the results of different economic policies, debunking Keynes earlier prediction. But the things Nico said in his Nobel Prize Lecture made him almost the laughing-stock of the medical profession. In his lecture, Nico took up the issue of autism, i.e a child's inability to relate to people and situations in a normal way starting from infancy. He maintained that it was possible to restore an autistic child to normalcy by establishing a secure mother-child bond; thereby suggesting that the cause of early childhood autism is due to the failure of the mother and child to establish or maintain a normal bond.

This, however, was not the kind of research that got him the Nobel Prize. He got it for his work in reviving and developing the biological science of animal behavior: ethology. His first work looked at the landmark orientation of homing wasps. He showed the importance of visual cues that enable the female wasps, despite the many different nests they build, to return to the correct one.

nature

What made Nico really famous is his demonstration of the "hawk/goose effect." His work explained the behavior of chicks to defend itself from danger: when a goose flies overhead the chick will show no response but if it is a hawk it crouches as if to fend itself from danger. This response was initially thought to be an inborn ability but it is now proven to be learned. The relation between his earlier work and his later theory on autism is obvious. To say that autistic children are "ineducable" and remain dependent all their lives reveals a lack of knowledge about the problem according to Nico, since we still do not have any idea of the causes of autism. What we do have is a mass of disconnected information in search of a theory. All negative predictions about the future are, in reality, no more than statements about the failures of past attempts. According to him, the opinion of experts cannot be trusted since they cannot look into the future. And, he continued, was it not equally the case that until the causes of cholera, smallpox and many other illnesses were discovered, they were considered incurable too?

The strong point in Nico's ethology-based research on "human animals" echoes his earlier work on ethology: a painstaking and continuous observation of animals and humans in their natural habitat. Zoos and natural history museums had always bored him. Much like parents or persons involved in the day-to-day care and education of autistic children, ethologists have always studied children in their home environment. No wonder it is the first group that supports him most. Nico presented a plausible hypothesis and the design of a promising therapy. To him, adaptedness is fundamental and autism is the result of an emotional imbalance. Contrary to mainstream idea, it is not a result of a disorder in the working of neurotransmitters. Neither is it genetic.

Of the works of Nikolaas Tinbergen, the following books can be recommended: The Study of Instinct, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1951 and (together with his wife) Autistic Children. New Hope for a Cure, George Allen & Unwin, London, 1983. The first book was a remarkable success. It made continental ethology known all over the world. It is clearly written and is a handbook to do ethological behavior research. The book on autism gives the "animal" ethological base to be used for "human" ethology. For a recent biography of Nico Tinbergen see: Nico's Nature: The Life of Nico Tinbergen and his Science of Animal Behaviour, Hans Kruuk, Oxford University Press, 2004.


Conclusion

In the introduction we posed the question: nature or nurture? Two brothers with different natures seem to duplicate each other's fate. The adventurous Nico did not have his brother Jan's quiet nature and love for study. Still, both were rewarded for their individual efforts, arrived at through different methods. They did share several factors: genes and family upbringing that encouraged intellectual curiosity and independent thinking. And they certainly got the same encouragement from their family to do what they liked best, and to do it well. Well enough to be given the highest accolade one can get for their respective fields. No matter what the critics may say.

Protecting the Environment

The regulation of practices that affect the environment has been a relatively recent development in the United States, but it is a good example of government intervention in the economy for a social purpose.

Beginning in the 1960s, Americans became increasingly concerned about the environmental impact of industrial growth. Engine exhaust from growing numbers of automobiles, for instance, was blamed for smog and other forms of air pollution in larger cities. Pollution represented what economists call an externality -- a cost the responsible entity can escape but that society as a whole must bear. With market forces unable to address such problems, many environmentalists suggested that government has a moral obligation to protect the earth's fragile ecosystems -- even if doing so requires that some economic growth be sacrificed. A slew of laws were enacted to control pollution, including the 1963 Clean Air Act, the 1972 Clean Water Act, and the 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act.

Environmentalists achieved a major goal in December 1970 with the establishment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which brought together in a single agency many federal programs charged with protecting the environment. The EPA sets and enforces tolerable limits of pollution, and it establishes timetables to bring polluters into line with standards; since most of the requirements are of recent origin, industries are given reasonable time, often several years, to conform to standards. The EPA also has the authority to coordinate and support research and anti-pollution efforts of state and local governments, private and public groups, and educational institutions. Regional EPA offices develop, propose, and implement approved regional programs for comprehensive environmental protection activities.

Data collected since the agency began its work show significant improvements in environmental quality; there has been a nationwide decline of virtually all air pollutants, for example. However, in 1990 many Americans believed that still greater efforts to combat air pollution were needed. Congress passed important amendments to the Clean Air Act, and they were signed into law by President George Bush (1989-1993). Among other things, the legislation incorporated an innovative market-based system designed to secure a substantial reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions, which produce what is known as acid rain. This type of pollution is believed to cause serious damage to forests and lakes, particularly in the eastern part of the United States and Canada.

Taxes and Economic Growth Response

Great article, but you fail to include any counterarguments.

1. Remember a crucial counterpoint here:

I can find reverse situation. Rather than working based on reward, individual actors may work to achieve a set income level (to provide for their family). If taxes go up, they may work more to provide for their family (if unhappily).

A large increase in salary (functionally equivalent to a tax break) may lead workers to reduce hours and enjoy fruits of their labor (given assumptions about the diminishing marginal utility to wealth).

Counterintuitive but actual true of human behavior.

2. Statistically, we have trouble finding such a relationship between taxes and growth. This should be troubling. Some suggest actual level at which the Laffer curve turns is around 70-80% if you look at states like Sweden.

State spending also has a lower marginal propensity to import than individuals and so in an open trading system, government spending has more bang for economy.

3. taxes that are used to provide services you might otherwise purchase (such as healthcare or education) are likely to be inefficient but are simply using the government as an intermediary for spending.

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What Happens if Interest Rates Go To Zero?

Can interest rates go to zero? Could they even be negative? I've heard that this has happened before. What would cause something like that to happen and what impact would it have on the economy?

A: Great questions!

First we need to distinguish between nominal and real interest rates. The article What's the difference between nominal and real? The quick answer is that nominal interest rates are the ones you typically hear about (prime rate, etc.) whereas real interest rates factor out inflation.

This week we will examine zero nominal interest rates. Next week we will look at zero real interest rates.

Zero Nominal Interest Rates

A zero nominal interest rate occurs when the interest rate is the same as the inflation rate. If inflation is 4% then interest rates are 4%. If you lent or borrowed for a year at a zero real interest rate, you would be exactly back where you started at the end of the year. I loan $100 to someone, I get back $104, but now what cost $100 before costs $104 now, so I'm no better off.

Typically nominal interest rates are positive, so people have some incentive to lend money. During a recession, however, central banks tend to lower nominal interest rates in order to spur investment in machinery, land, factories, etc. If they cut interest rates too quickly, they can start to approach the level of inflation. Inflation will often rise when interest rates are cut, since these cuts have a stimulative effect on the economy.

According to some economists a zero nominal interest rate can be caused by a liquidity trap:

    "The Liquidity trap is a Keynesian idea. When expected returns from investments in securities or real plant and equipment are low, investment falls, a recession begins, and cash holdings in banks rise. People and businesses then continue to hold cash because they expect spending and investment to be low. This is a self-fulfilling trap."
There is a way we can avoid the liquidity trap and, for real interest rates to be negative, even if nominal interest rates are still positive. It occurs if investors believe a currency will rise in the future. Suppose the nominal interest rate on a bond in Norway is 4%, but inflation in that country is 6%. That sounds like a bad deal for a Norwegian investor because by buying the bond their future real purchasing power would decline. However, if I'm an American investor and I think the Norwegian krone is going to increase 10% over the U.S. dollar, then buying these bonds is a good deal. If I'm right about the currency jump, then I'll gain 10% from switching from the U.S. dollar to Norwegian krone denominated bonds today. On top of that, I'll also receive the 4% gain in interest.

As you might expect this is more of a theoretic possibility than something than occurs regularly in the real world. However, it did take place in Switzerland in the late 1970s, where investors bought negative nominal interest rate bonds because of the strength of the Swiss franc.

I hope this answers your question about negative real interest rates. In What Happens if Nominal Interest Rates Go To Zero? we examine the case of negative nominal interest rates. If you have a question about interest rates, please contact us, by using the